| Author(s): |
Ensor, K., Bridges, E., Thompson, J. |
| Abstract: |
A decision regarding the development and introduction of a potential new product depends, in part, on the intensity of competition expected in the marketplace. In the case of a technology-based product such as a personal computer, the number of competing products may be very dynamic and thus uncertain. This problem is addressed by modeling growth in the number of new personal computers as a stochastic counting process, incorporating product entries and exits. An excellent fit to actual data is obtained. The use of the resulting model to forecast competition 5 years in advance is demonstrated. It is expected that sales for products based on a new technology will reach a peak as the market becomes saturated and that, following this peak, the number of competitors will also decline. |
| Citation: |
Decision Sciences, Vol. 23, Issue 2, p. 467-477 |
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